Polls this morning: Florida: 51% Biden 46% Trump Arizona: 49% Biden 45% Trump Michigan: 52% Biden 40% Trump
But Trump does have some reason for optimism and his opponents for vigilance. Trump claims there is a “Silent Majority” that will reelect him. But the fear for Democrats is actually a silencing of the majority. Trump won four years ago with a minority of the popular vote, and the hurdles to voting are only growing during the pandemic. Mail-in ballots may be discarded at high rates, a shrinking number of polling locations and a lack of poll-workers could result in long lines, as demonstrated by primaries. Election officials, low on resources, have just 100 days to carry out an election in a pandemic.
Political fortunes can change and polls may narrow, but as we pass the 100 day mark, Trump’s hopes for reelection increasingly rest on a majority of Americans having their will subverted once again.
Hospitals have been instructed to send COVID data to a central database in Washington, bypassing the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The information will no longer be accessible to the public, raising concern that the data is being hidden for political reasons and the lack of transparency will make it easier for the administration to mislead the public.
The administration is also blocking CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield from testifying before Congress about the safety of reopening schools. They are attempting to block GOP senators from allocating billions of dollars to the CDC, Pentagon, and State Department for pandemic response. And the administration even opposes sending billions to states for testing and contact tracing.
“Over the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from Civiqs, an online survey research firm,” Cohn and Quealy wrote. “By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began.”
“Public opinion didn’t even shift this fast in support of the Civil Rights Movement during the 1960s,” noted Luntz.
There are also clear signs Trump isn’t handling the moment well. His approval rating has fallen since the protests began. And Joe Biden’s lead over the president in head-to-head polls has increased over the same period. Meanwhile, 67 percent of Americans say that Trump has increased racial tensions, according to a poll from NPR, PBS, and Marist
The president erupted at his top advisers when they showed him polling data indicating eroding support in key states due to his bungled coronavirus response.
Forty-two percent is a terrifying number, because it’s about more than Trump. That number represents the percentage of Americans who have, it appears, wholly rejected reasoned discourse and democratic values. Due to the quirks in our electoral system that give disproportionate power to rural and suburban areas, and due to voter suppression efforts from the GOP, that 42% will likely control the Senate for the foreseeable future and will quite possibly win the presidency again in 2020.
Since they saw Trump fire Comey after pressuring him to assure the president of his loyalty to the man rather than to the law of the land, it is understandable that fully 58% believe Trump is guilty of obstruction of the investigation into his alleged Russia ties.
Moreover, asked “If Trump did not personally have inappropriate contacts with Russia but did obstruct the Justice Department investigation, should Congress take steps to remove him from office, or shouldn’t it?” — fully 53 percent favor impeachment.
Trump is in real trouble if Rasmussen is showing he is. Rasmussen is the most conservative pro GOP pollester in the USA. (ODT)
In the wake of the partial government shutdown, which is now lurching into a third week, Republican President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 45 percent — his lowest score since Sept. 12 — and 53 percent disapprove, according to Rasmussen Reports, whose polls traditionally favor the GOP.
Additionally, a recent Gallup poll revealed that the share of Americans wanting to emigrate from the U.S. jumped to 16 percent throughout Trump’s time in the Oval Office. The results are striking considering the partial government shutdown is being fought over a border wall to keep people out of the U.S.
The poll found Labor would have won an election last week by virtually the same margin it won by when Victorians voted in 2014, claiming 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to the Coalition’s 48 per cent.
The ReachTEL poll of 1239 voters was taken on the night of October 3.
With fewer than 50 days remaining until election day, the result suggests Coalition leader Matthew Guy will need to make significant ground during the election campaign if he is to claim the eight extra seats he needs to become Victoria’s next premier.
Democrats in 2018 feel more positive toward socialism than capitalism, according to a Gallup Poll released Monday.
Fifty-seven percent of respondents indicated they had a positive view of socialism, a percentage that has not changed drastically since 2010. “The major change,” Gallup reports, “has been a less upbeat attitude toward capitalism, dropping to 47% positive this year—lower than in any of the three previous measures.”
Easy come, easy poll: on Monday, Gallup had Trump back down at 41%, as Americans learned more about his policy of separating migrant families at the US border. In fact, Trump’s approval rating during his first term has been “incredibly stable” within a band from about 36% to 43%, polling analyst Harry Enten and others have pointed out.
Under normal circumstances, an overall approval rating much under 50% would spell doom for an incumbent president, ruling out re-election. And 90% in-party support is not unusual in recent presidential cycles.
ReachTEL: 51-49 to LaborThe Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.Essential Research: 54-46 to LaborLabor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to LaborA bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s.My thought for the day.”Just because we are governed by clowns it doesn’t mean we have to laugh.”
Corbyn’s Labour surges to an 8-point lead over the Tories
Source: Decoding the polls | The Monthly
Trump should be afraid of his lousy poll showing, Albert R. Hunt
WASHINGTON – (CT&P) – According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, village idiots across the United States are breaking for Donald Trump. Clinton and Trump are al…
RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Over the past three months, as Trump and Clinton secured their grip on their party’s presidential nominations, US pollsters have been quietly surveying tens of thousands of Americans. More than 15 different polling companies have now collectively quizzed more than 150,000 people, across 65 different polls. The bad news for Donald Trump, and reassuring news for the rest of us? Hillary Clinton has led in 63 of those 65 polls, and trailed in just one.
Our statistical model combines all opinion polls to get a better estimate of the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote
National polls show him leading but also show other candidates’ strength.
The Zogby Research Services poll of 5,374 young Muslim men and women from the Middle East and North Africa also found that many millennials blame corruption and re
Only 17 percent of Americans polled say they support the movement.
Voter support for the Abbott government has plunged across all states over the past year and is significantly behind Labor in two-party-preferred terms everywhere except Western Australia, a Newspoll analysis shows.
The analysis published by News Corp Australia on Saturday shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has tumbled 10 points in Victoria and South Australia, nine points in NSW, eight points in Queensland and seven points in WA.
In two-party-preferred terms based on preference flows in the 2013 election, Labor leads the Coalition by 60 per cent to 40 per cent in Victoria, by 54 to 46 per cent in both NSW and South Australia and by 52 to 48 per cent in Queensland.
Only in WA does the Coalition have a two-party preferred lead – of 53 to 47 per cent.
ALP support surged to 57.5% (up 4%) now well ahead of the L-NP 42.5% (down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis this weekend. This is the ALP’s biggest lead since early June 2014. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,007 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.
Primary support for the ALP rose to 41% (up 3.5%) well ahead of the L-NP 35% (down 4%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 10.5%.
Support for PUP is highest in Tasmania (3.5%), followed by Queensland (3%), Victoria (2%), South Australia (2%), New South Wales (1%) and Western Australia (1%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows support is far higher for the ALP amongst women despite a fall: ALP (59.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (40.5%, down 2.5%). However, support is now higher amongst men for the ALP (56.5%, up 6.5%) compared to the L-NP (43.5%, down 6.5%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%.
Analysis by States
The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Victoria: ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; Tasmania: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; New South Wales: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%; Queensland: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, Western Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% and South Australia: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down to 93pts (down 5%) this week. Now 45% (up 2.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 38% (down 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!
The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.
Voters approve Tony Abbott’s ‘relations with other countries’, says pollEssential poll shows disapproval on every other issue, and Labor retains 53% to 47% two-party-preferred lead.
But voters delivered net negative ratings for the government’s handling of every other issue, with big slumps in how the electorate viewed the Coalition’s performance on climate change (net -27%), health services (-27%), social welfare (-26%) and education and schools (-26%).
Choice of war hasn’t helped Abbott’s standing in the polls. However it’s a pity we are such such a bellicose nation and encouraged him on this decision.
ASIO is about to raise Australia’s terror level from medium to high. Apparently we are about to be inundated with Aussie ISIS combatants, and we all need to keep on our toes as the threat is very, very real! It hasn’t happened so far which renders the prospect somewhat abstract. The government would like to shift our axis of fear away from it’s cruelling budget and toward a shadowy underworld of fanatical extremists who are feverishly plotting to kill us all.Would our day-to-day lives actually be safer (or better) if we all adopted the hyper-vigilant cortisol arousal of a combat soldier? Because surely that is exactly what “raising the threat level” is suggesting we do?
Hyper alert wouldn’t have helped a single person in the world trade centre, or the sari club, being constantly on guard hasn’t been an effective defence in places where terrorism occurs frequently. When it has been thwarted it’s generally by normal people who just happened to notice something odd, and responded appropriately. Isn’t this something that the vast majority of us would do automatically, regardless of the government rated “threat level”?
So what is the point of all this talk such rhetoric seems to have is increasing the level of racism directed toward people of middle eastern descent. Statistically speaking we are far more likely to die crossing the road or in bed than a local terrorist.
So why is the Abbott government so intent on ramping up our levels of ambient anxiety? When it has been proven that ramping up the threat levels will not prevent anything? It does however seem to effect the governments standing in the polls. When Tony bangs on about terrorist threats his poll ratings go up. When we turn our attention back to the budget and the broader economy his poll ratings go down. Thank god for ISIS, middle eastern dual nationals, airport security upgrades, ASIO terror alerts, and Murdoch’s unwavering commitment to keeping them in the forefront of the news!
While Abbott and Murdoch seem to revel in their ability to keep us anxious, the fact remains Australia is an extraordinarily safe country. It’s stupid to deny we wont ever have an attack on domestic soil, but I am saying it is a fools errand to be working ourselves into a permanent paranoid lather, or aligning ourselves with some mythical, quasi racist “team Australia” in order to prevent such an attack from happening.
FEAR WILL STOP US ENJOYING OUR LIVES the only perceptible upside is Tony’s position in the polls?