Tag: Polls
Undecided voters in marginal seats have named Anthony Albanese the clear winner of the third and final leaders’ debate which was a more sedate affair than the previous ‘shouty’ match.
The Final Showdown on Channel 7 on Wednesday night included a ‘pub test’ of 160 voters who scored Mr Albanese 50 per cent and Mr Morrison 34 per cent while 16 per cent remained undecided.
Meanwhile A YouGov poll of 19,000 voters commissioned by The Australian shows the Coalition heading for defeat, with Labor winning 80 seats and the Coalition reduced to 63. Seven seats would go to independents and one to the Greens.
Source: Undecided voters award Albanese victory in third and final leaders’ debate
The biggest poll of 16,000 has the ALP with a majority of 12 seats and an increased number of Independents
My thought for the day I find it impossible to imagine that the Australian people could be so gullible as to elect for a fourth term a government that has performed so miserably in the first three. Especially when it has amongst its members some of the most devious, suspicious and corrupt men and women, but they could.( John Lord )
Source: Let’s hope the polls are right this time – » The Australian Independent Media Network
Yes, we all know that there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s the one taken next week when the Liberals all get together to work out if it’s too late to change leader.
Like Monty Python’s Black Knight Scott Morrison is mustering his Media Forces and Dirt Brigade to keep Albo tarnished in the view of the electorate. Kimberly Kitching vs the “Mean Girls” has been his current attention grabber to keep the brutal defeat of the LNP in South Australia off the front pages. Peter Dutton’s promise of a space force sometime next century is intended to add some spit and polish to Scumo
Coalition support is lower than it was during the Black Summer bushfires, a study has found. Just 32.2 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the government if an election was held in January, compared with 35.4 per cent in January 2020. It is also a sizeable drop from January 2021 at the height of the pandemic, when 40.3 per cent of respondent said they’d vote for the Liberal-National coalition. Lead author of the Australian National University study Professor Nicholas Biddle said with less than one in three respondents to back the incumbents, things did not look good for the coalition. “This is significantly lower than the 37 per cent who said they would vote for Labor, who would appear to have been in an election-winning position,” he said.
Source: Government support lower than at bushfires – Michael West Media
Strangely, Mr Frydenberg’s broken promise wasn’t the front page of “The Herald-Sun” in Melbourne today. No, there was a much bigger one. The Independent challenging him for the seat has a secret. She doesn’t like the government and, even worse, she once declared her love for some Labor politicians on Facebook. Now, given that it came out that she was once a member of the Labor Party a few months ago, I wouldn’t have considered this front page news, but I guess that’s why I’m not likely to ever be asked to edit any of the Murdoch propaganda sheets.
I would have presumed that the announcement that Josh doesn’t intend to demonstrate his commitment to recycling by using the same car park policy that he took to the previous election would be an indication that he feels completely safe. However, when the papers feel the need to do a hit job on his opponent and not some Labor person in a marginal electorate, the polling must be closer than I thought.
Ok, well, it’s only a matter of weeks before Morrison has to either call the election or else we’ll all know that it’s on May 21st. Unless he really is intending to have a half-Senate election and hold off the House of Representatives so long that all the newspapers running Clive Palmer’s ads become viable businesses again.
Peter Costello’s Ch9 seemed to have selected a poll that reports differently to others why is that? Because Resolve show a softer verion of the results and less damning of the LNP and therefore a less seemingly negative image of Morrison’s actual CV.
In the first national poll of the new year, a Resolve survey for the Nine newspapers, Labor had 35% of the primary vote (up three percentage points since November), the Coalition 34% (down five), the Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 3% (steady) and independents 11% (up two). This is the first time since Resolve began doing its monthly surveys last April that Labor has been ahead of the Coalition on primary votes. In late 2021, Resolve showed better results for the Coalition than other polls conducted at about the same time.
Source: Coalition slumps in first poll of 2022 as voters lose confidence in Morrison’s handling of pandemic
Morrison the marketeer follows the polls and his poopularity is on the rise.
The latest Newspoll conducted for The Australian newspaper and published on Sunday night found Mr Morrison’s approval rating had fallen from its high of 85 per cent in April 2020 to just 48 per cent in the latest survey conducted between August 4 and 7. It equates to a four-point drop in only three weeks, and is the first time the PM’s performance has fallen into net negative territory since March 2020. When translated to voting intentions, it leaves Labor leading the Coalition 53-47 on a two-party-preferred basis and the government facing its worst electoral position since the Black Saturday bushfires crisis in 2019-20.
Source: Popularity of Scott Morrison plunges as ALP retains 53-47 Newspoll lead
The competence a politician has and displays is the Bitcoin of the modern business. If you’re competent enough and present as such, with the typical confidence high-achieving pols have in abundance, your selling price is on the escalator. Just like the roller coaster ride Bitcoin traders know so well, when a political leader falters in competence and starts looking to be out of his or her depth your value takes a dive. Right now Scott Morrison is like Bitcoin. He spent 2020 on the rise – hitting unprecedented highs over time – but then slumped in the early months of 2021.
Source: From character to competence, ‘Scotty from Marketing’ is in a world of pain
With growing criticism toward his poor leadership of our country, particularly through the pandemic, Scott Morrison’s popularity is slipping, writes Emma Dawson.
Not only had Mr Morrison’s net approval slid to its lowest level since the 2019-20 bushfire crisis, popular support for the Coalition (down two points) and Labor (up two points) was deadlocked at 39 per cent. The four-point turnaround equates to Labor taking a 53-47 lead in a two-party-preferred vote and a significant defeat for the Morrison government if a federal election was held.
Source: Labor takes 53-47 lead as Scott Morrison’s approval rating plummets
Any wonder Costello sacked Hewson. The only thing keeping Morrison, Dutton, and Frydenberg afloat is private MSM
Support for Scott Morrison and the government have slumped in Newspoll, in a major backlash against the botched vaccine rollout. Labor has surged to a two-party lead of 53-47 per cent, compared with 51-49 per cent in the previous poll in late June.
Source: Morrison and Coalition sink in Newspoll with rollout shambles
The latest Essential poll last week showed people’s support of the government’s handling of the pandemic sliding nine points from 53% to 44%. And 30% of respondents described the government’s COVID strategy as poor, compared to 24% a month earlier.
Three polls released in the past several months attempt to measure public opinion about critical race theory — asking respondents about the topic in general, how often they’ve heard about it, and whether they agree with it’s alleged use in elementary schools. However, none of the polls assess whether respondents accurately understand critical race theory, so given right-wing media spin on the topic, outlets must be cautious in reporting their results.
Source: Media should be careful with polls about critical race theory | Media Matters for America
Results from opinion polls are regularly accorded more weight than they deserve, particularly given that their methodology is not transparent; their language can shape answers; and only a small percentage of those contacted respond. Yet polls may also independently shape voting choices. Michael Tanner reports.
Source: Numbers can lie: the science behind opinion polls – Michael West
Under Abbott, Turnbull and now Morrison, they, by any standard, have governed abysmally. So much so that they really don’t deserve to win. It would be fair to say that a vote for the Coalition would be a reward for governance that doesn’t even approach mediocrity. One then has to ask how come they are still favourites to win. Why is it so, one might ask?
Source: The polls are in search of some lasting credibility – » The Australian Independent Media Network
Morrison now faces multiple, serious threats Coupled with a poorly managed political crisis over the treatment of women, Morrison’s 2021 has been tin-eared. A sharp decline of public trust in government, in expertise, and in institutional competence looms as a clear and present danger for Morrison’s popularity.
Source: As Australia’s vaccination bungle becomes clear, Morrison’s political pain is only just beginning
Morrison has repeatedly said he’s a “full termer” and has no plans of calling an election any time soon. It may be one of the few pledges he can keep.
A drop in the polls – largely due to the government’s manmade “women issues” combined with backbencher woes – had already left the Coalition teetering on the edge of minority government, making many MPs nervous.
The abrupt change in the government’s vaccine fortunes – once thought so golden that announcements came attached with Liberal party branding – turned nervous into anxious on Friday.
A double-digit deterioration in perceptions of Scott Morrison’s personal attributes has been wholly driven by female voters
Rape allegations have shaken Canberra to its core – and may now be hitting the PM in the polls | Peter Lewis | Australia news | The Guardian
A clear majority of Americans want twice-impeached former President Donald Trump to be convicted by the Senate and barred from holding office in the future, according to polling results released Monday, the same day the House of Representatives delivered an article of impeachment against Trump for “incitement of insurrection” to the upper chamber of Congress.
Poll: Majority Want Trump Barred From Holding Future Office | Crooks and Liars
“How come?” with almost three terms of pathetic governance is the Morrison government able to maintain such a lead in the polls?
How come a pathetic government leads in the polls? – » The Australian Independent Media Network
If the state polls were underestimating Trump’s support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the required 270 Electoral College votes on November 3. The President would require a bigger polling miss than four years ago in order to win a second term.
US election 2020: Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in final polls
Polls highly favour Joe Biden to win the US presidential election.
These polls are not just abstract information. By telling prospective voters who is the most likely to win, can they influence the result of the election by playing a role in the voters’ decision? The evidence says yes, and it most likely favours Biden.
In theory, you could imagine two possible effects of polls. First, a momentum effect. Second, an underdog effect.
The common good, or empathy for it, should be at the centre of any political philosophy. However, it is more likely to be found on the left than the right.
Newspoll, Insiders, and what’s new in politics – » The Australian Independent Media Network
![President Donald Trump is set to hold events in swing states during the Democratic National Convention [Evan Vucci/The Associated Press]](https://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2020/8/17/c52c04e88e7f4e5c975add81eda51399_18.jpg "Trump breaks tradition to campaign during Democratic convention")
Amid slumping polls, the president campaigns in battleground states Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
via Trump breaks tradition to campaign during Democratic convention | USA News | Al Jazeera
Polls this morning: Florida: 51% Biden 46% Trump Arizona: 49% Biden 45% Trump Michigan: 52% Biden 40% Trump
But Trump does have some reason for optimism and his opponents for vigilance. Trump claims there is a “Silent Majority” that will reelect him. But the fear for Democrats is actually a silencing of the majority. Trump won four years ago with a minority of the popular vote, and the hurdles to voting are only growing during the pandemic. Mail-in ballots may be discarded at high rates, a shrinking number of polling locations and a lack of poll-workers could result in long lines, as demonstrated by primaries. Election officials, low on resources, have just 100 days to carry out an election in a pandemic.
Political fortunes can change and polls may narrow, but as we pass the 100 day mark, Trump’s hopes for reelection increasingly rest on a majority of Americans having their will subverted once again.
via The Election Is in 100 Days. If It Were Held Today, Trump Would Lose. – Mother Jones
Hospitals have been instructed to send COVID data to a central database in Washington, bypassing the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The information will no longer be accessible to the public, raising concern that the data is being hidden for political reasons and the lack of transparency will make it easier for the administration to mislead the public.
The administration is also blocking CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield from testifying before Congress about the safety of reopening schools. They are attempting to block GOP senators from allocating billions of dollars to the CDC, Pentagon, and State Department for pandemic response. And the administration even opposes sending billions to states for testing and contact tracing.
via Trump’s Authoritarianism is Ill-Suited to a Pandemic | The Smirking Chimp
“Over the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from Civiqs, an online survey research firm,” Cohn and Quealy wrote. “By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began.”
“Public opinion didn’t even shift this fast in support of the Civil Rights Movement during the 1960s,” noted Luntz.
There are also clear signs Trump isn’t handling the moment well. His approval rating has fallen since the protests began. And Joe Biden’s lead over the president in head-to-head polls has increased over the same period. Meanwhile, 67 percent of Americans say that Trump has increased racial tensions, according to a poll from NPR, PBS, and Marist
The president erupted at his top advisers when they showed him polling data indicating eroding support in key states due to his bungled coronavirus response.
via Trump Erupts At Campaign Team As His Poll Numbers Slide | HuffPost
Forty-two percent is a terrifying number, because it’s about more than Trump. That number represents the percentage of Americans who have, it appears, wholly rejected reasoned discourse and democratic values. Due to the quirks in our electoral system that give disproportionate power to rural and suburban areas, and due to voter suppression efforts from the GOP, that 42% will likely control the Senate for the foreseeable future and will quite possibly win the presidency again in 2020.
via Impeachment trial should remove any lingering doubt: Republicans are beyond redemption | Salon.com
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