Results from opinion polls are regularly accorded more weight than they deserve, particularly given that their methodology is not transparent; their language can shape answers; and only a small percentage of those contacted respond. Yet polls may also independently shape voting choices. Michael Tanner reports.
Source: Numbers can lie: the science behind opinion polls – Michael West
Under Abbott, Turnbull and now Morrison, they, by any standard, have governed abysmally. So much so that they really don’t deserve to win. It would be fair to say that a vote for the Coalition would be a reward for governance that doesn’t even approach mediocrity. One then has to ask how come they are still favourites to win. Why is it so, one might ask?
Source: The polls are in search of some lasting credibility – » The Australian Independent Media Network
Morrison now faces multiple, serious threats Coupled with a poorly managed political crisis over the treatment of women, Morrison’s 2021 has been tin-eared. A sharp decline of public trust in government, in expertise, and in institutional competence looms as a clear and present danger for Morrison’s popularity.
Source: As Australia’s vaccination bungle becomes clear, Morrison’s political pain is only just beginning
Morrison has repeatedly said he’s a “full termer” and has no plans of calling an election any time soon. It may be one of the few pledges he can keep.
A drop in the polls – largely due to the government’s manmade “women issues” combined with backbencher woes – had already left the Coalition teetering on the edge of minority government, making many MPs nervous.
The abrupt change in the government’s vaccine fortunes – once thought so golden that announcements came attached with Liberal party branding – turned nervous into anxious on Friday.
A double-digit deterioration in perceptions of Scott Morrison’s personal attributes has been wholly driven by female voters
Rape allegations have shaken Canberra to its core – and may now be hitting the PM in the polls | Peter Lewis | Australia news | The Guardian
A clear majority of Americans want twice-impeached former President Donald Trump to be convicted by the Senate and barred from holding office in the future, according to polling results released Monday, the same day the House of Representatives delivered an article of impeachment against Trump for “incitement of insurrection” to the upper chamber of Congress.
Poll: Majority Want Trump Barred From Holding Future Office | Crooks and Liars
“How come?” with almost three terms of pathetic governance is the Morrison government able to maintain such a lead in the polls?
How come a pathetic government leads in the polls? – » The Australian Independent Media Network
If the state polls were underestimating Trump’s support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the required 270 Electoral College votes on November 3. The President would require a bigger polling miss than four years ago in order to win a second term.
US election 2020: Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in final polls
Polls highly favour Joe Biden to win the US presidential election.
These polls are not just abstract information. By telling prospective voters who is the most likely to win, can they influence the result of the election by playing a role in the voters’ decision? The evidence says yes, and it most likely favours Biden.
In theory, you could imagine two possible effects of polls. First, a momentum effect. Second, an underdog effect.
The common good, or empathy for it, should be at the centre of any political philosophy. However, it is more likely to be found on the left than the right.
Newspoll, Insiders, and what’s new in politics – » The Australian Independent Media Network
![President Donald Trump is set to hold events in swing states during the Democratic National Convention [Evan Vucci/The Associated Press]](https://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2020/8/17/c52c04e88e7f4e5c975add81eda51399_18.jpg "Trump breaks tradition to campaign during Democratic convention")
Amid slumping polls, the president campaigns in battleground states Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
via Trump breaks tradition to campaign during Democratic convention | USA News | Al Jazeera
Polls this morning: Florida: 51% Biden 46% Trump Arizona: 49% Biden 45% Trump Michigan: 52% Biden 40% Trump
But Trump does have some reason for optimism and his opponents for vigilance. Trump claims there is a “Silent Majority” that will reelect him. But the fear for Democrats is actually a silencing of the majority. Trump won four years ago with a minority of the popular vote, and the hurdles to voting are only growing during the pandemic. Mail-in ballots may be discarded at high rates, a shrinking number of polling locations and a lack of poll-workers could result in long lines, as demonstrated by primaries. Election officials, low on resources, have just 100 days to carry out an election in a pandemic.
Political fortunes can change and polls may narrow, but as we pass the 100 day mark, Trump’s hopes for reelection increasingly rest on a majority of Americans having their will subverted once again.
via The Election Is in 100 Days. If It Were Held Today, Trump Would Lose. – Mother Jones
Hospitals have been instructed to send COVID data to a central database in Washington, bypassing the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The information will no longer be accessible to the public, raising concern that the data is being hidden for political reasons and the lack of transparency will make it easier for the administration to mislead the public.
The administration is also blocking CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield from testifying before Congress about the safety of reopening schools. They are attempting to block GOP senators from allocating billions of dollars to the CDC, Pentagon, and State Department for pandemic response. And the administration even opposes sending billions to states for testing and contact tracing.
via Trump’s Authoritarianism is Ill-Suited to a Pandemic | The Smirking Chimp
“Over the last two weeks, support for Black Lives Matter increased by nearly as much as it had over the previous two years, according to data from Civiqs, an online survey research firm,” Cohn and Quealy wrote. “By a 28-point margin, Civiqs finds that a majority of American voters support the movement, up from a 17-point margin before the most recent wave of protests began.”
“Public opinion didn’t even shift this fast in support of the Civil Rights Movement during the 1960s,” noted Luntz.
There are also clear signs Trump isn’t handling the moment well. His approval rating has fallen since the protests began. And Joe Biden’s lead over the president in head-to-head polls has increased over the same period. Meanwhile, 67 percent of Americans say that Trump has increased racial tensions, according to a poll from NPR, PBS, and Marist
The president erupted at his top advisers when they showed him polling data indicating eroding support in key states due to his bungled coronavirus response.
via Trump Erupts At Campaign Team As His Poll Numbers Slide | HuffPost
Forty-two percent is a terrifying number, because it’s about more than Trump. That number represents the percentage of Americans who have, it appears, wholly rejected reasoned discourse and democratic values. Due to the quirks in our electoral system that give disproportionate power to rural and suburban areas, and due to voter suppression efforts from the GOP, that 42% will likely control the Senate for the foreseeable future and will quite possibly win the presidency again in 2020.
via Impeachment trial should remove any lingering doubt: Republicans are beyond redemption | Salon.com
Since they saw Trump fire Comey after pressuring him to assure the president of his loyalty to the man rather than to the law of the land, it is understandable that fully 58% believe Trump is guilty of obstruction of the investigation into his alleged Russia ties.
Moreover, asked “If Trump did not personally have inappropriate contacts with Russia but did obstruct the Justice Department investigation, should Congress take steps to remove him from office, or shouldn’t it?” — fully 53 percent favor impeachment.
via After Mueller: A Majority of Americans believes Trump is Guilty of Obstruction, wants him Impeached
Trump is in real trouble if Rasmussen is showing he is. Rasmussen is the most conservative pro GOP pollester in the USA. (ODT)
In the wake of the partial government shutdown, which is now lurching into a third week, Republican President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 45 percent — his lowest score since Sept. 12 — and 53 percent disapprove, according to Rasmussen Reports, whose polls traditionally favor the GOP.
Additionally, a recent Gallup poll revealed that the share of Americans wanting to emigrate from the U.S. jumped to 16 percent throughout Trump’s time in the Oval Office. The results are striking considering the partial government shutdown is being fought over a border wall to keep people out of the U.S.
The poll found Labor would have won an election last week by virtually the same margin it won by when Victorians voted in 2014, claiming 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to the Coalition’s 48 per cent.
The ReachTEL poll of 1239 voters was taken on the night of October 3.
With fewer than 50 days remaining until election day, the result suggests Coalition leader Matthew Guy will need to make significant ground during the election campaign if he is to claim the eight extra seats he needs to become Victoria’s next premier.
via ReachTEL poll: Andrews edges clear of Guy as state election draws near
Democrats in 2018 feel more positive toward socialism than capitalism, according to a Gallup Poll released Monday.
Fifty-seven percent of respondents indicated they had a positive view of socialism, a percentage that has not changed drastically since 2010. “The major change,” Gallup reports, “has been a less upbeat attitude toward capitalism, dropping to 47% positive this year—lower than in any of the three previous measures.”
Easy come, easy poll: on Monday, Gallup had Trump back down at 41%, as Americans learned more about his policy of separating migrant families at the US border. In fact, Trump’s approval rating during his first term has been “incredibly stable” within a band from about 36% to 43%, polling analyst Harry Enten and others have pointed out.
Under normal circumstances, an overall approval rating much under 50% would spell doom for an incumbent president, ruling out re-election. And 90% in-party support is not unusual in recent presidential cycles.
via Is Trump really winning? The truth about the president’s popularity | US news | The Guardian
ReachTEL: 51-49 to LaborThe Coalition gets a better federal voting intention result from ReachTEL, although the result would be more typical of recent polling of preferences are applied as per the 2016 election result.Essential Research: 54-46 to LaborLabor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to LaborA bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s.My thought for the day.”Just because we are governed by clowns it doesn’t mean we have to laugh.”
Source: Day to Day Politics: Murdoch’s mysterious millions. – » The Australian Independent Media Network
Corbyn’s Labour surges to an 8-point lead over the Tories
Source: Corbyn’s Labour surges to an 8-point lead over the Tories / Boing Boing
Trump’s use of Twitter is driving voters crazy, as his loyalists begin to rethink their support
Source: Trump is losing his most loyal supporters: poll – Salon.com
Source: Decoding the polls | The Monthly
Trump should be afraid of his lousy poll showing, Albert R. Hunt
WASHINGTON – (CT&P) – According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, village idiots across the United States are breaking for Donald Trump. Clinton and Trump are al…
Source: Poll: Village Idiots Breaking For Trump | The Cretonia Times-Picayune
RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Source: RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Over the past three months, as Trump and Clinton secured their grip on their party’s presidential nominations, US pollsters have been quietly surveying tens of thousands of Americans. More than 15 different polling companies have now collectively quizzed more than 150,000 people, across 65 different polls. The bad news for Donald Trump, and reassuring news for the rest of us? Hillary Clinton has led in 63 of those 65 polls, and trailed in just one.
Our statistical model combines all opinion polls to get a better estimate of the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote
Source: Poll of polls: who will win the Australian election? | News | The Guardian
National polls show him leading but also show other candidates’ strength.
The Zogby Research Services poll of 5,374 young Muslim men and women from the Middle East and North Africa also found that many millennials blame corruption and re
Source: New poll shows that Arab Muslim youth think ISIS and Al Qaeda distort Islam – Your Middle East
Only 17 percent of Americans polled say they support the movement.
Voter support for the Abbott government has plunged across all states over the past year and is significantly behind Labor in two-party-preferred terms everywhere except Western Australia, a Newspoll analysis shows.
The analysis published by News Corp Australia on Saturday shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has tumbled 10 points in Victoria and South Australia, nine points in NSW, eight points in Queensland and seven points in WA.
In two-party-preferred terms based on preference flows in the 2013 election, Labor leads the Coalition by 60 per cent to 40 per cent in Victoria, by 54 to 46 per cent in both NSW and South Australia and by 52 to 48 per cent in Queensland.
Only in WA does the Coalition have a two-party preferred lead – of 53 to 47 per cent.
