ALP support surged to 57.5% (up 4%) now well ahead of the L-NP 42.5% (down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis this weekend. This is the ALP’s biggest lead since early June 2014. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,007 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the ALP rose to 41% (up 3.5%) well ahead of the L-NP 35% (down 4%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 10.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Tasmania (3.5%), followed by Queensland (3%), Victoria (2%), South Australia (2%), New South Wales (1%) and Western Australia (1%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is far higher for the ALP amongst women despite a fall: ALP (59.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (40.5%, down 2.5%). However, support is now higher amongst men for the ALP (56.5%, up 6.5%) compared to the L-NP (43.5%, down 6.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Victoria: ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; Tasmania: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; New South Wales: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%; Queensland: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, Western Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% and South Australia:  ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down to 93pts (down 5%) this week. Now 45% (up 2.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 38% (down 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.