Polls this morning: Florida: 51% Biden 46% Trump Arizona: 49% Biden 45% Trump Michigan: 52% Biden 40% Trump
But Trump does have some reason for optimism and his opponents for vigilance. Trump claims there is a “Silent Majority” that will reelect him. But the fear for Democrats is actually a silencing of the majority. Trump won four years ago with a minority of the popular vote, and the hurdles to voting are only growing during the pandemic. Mail-in ballots may be discarded at high rates, a shrinking number of polling locations and a lack of poll-workers could result in long lines, as demonstrated by primaries. Election officials, low on resources, have just 100 days to carry out an election in a pandemic.
Political fortunes can change and polls may narrow, but as we pass the 100 day mark, Trump’s hopes for reelection increasingly rest on a majority of Americans having their will subverted once again.